the importance of leadership in times of uncertainty
BANI: A new way to understand instability
Let’s start with a bitter truth: the world is fundamentally unstable and uncertain. But recently, a sequence of unprecedented global events – from Covid-19 to environmental unrest, armed conflict to soaring inflation – it has been even more so. So, if Albert Einstein is right when he says ‘the leader is one who, out of the clutter, brings simplicity... out of discord, harmony... and out of difficulty, opportunity’, effective leadership is more critical now than ever, as organisations are forced to adapt to an ever-changing landscape.
To lead people through change, we need to understand it. Historically, the phrase ‘VUCA’ comes to mind. Coined at an Army War College in America – to detail the difficulties of operating after the Cold War – the phrase filtered into business schools through management and leadership literature. The acronym alludes to feeling out of control in a Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous world.
However, during the pandemic, a 2020-friendly acronym took off: BANI. The BANI model goes one step further than VUCA, not only as an update for the 21st century, but also in providing a framework that helps us think about how people experience the world around them– which is crucial when it comes to thinking about how we act as leaders in 2024.
Here’s what BANI stands for:
Brittle: Our systems, although seemingly firm, are more fragile than they appear. Our environment, our economy, our global supply chains – all of these are more breakable than we’d like to believe. And an unprecedented shock can, in the modern world, have devastating effects.
Anxious: This follows directly from ‘brittle,’ because knowing that the world we live in is inherently fragile comes with a level of uncertainty – of anxiety. It is a permeating thing: it trickles through every element of our society – and it is our primary first-hand experience when it comes to looking at the BANI model. For example, advances in technology and AI capabilities lead to a growing anxiety in the job market, whilst the pandemic brought /with it more intense levels of health anxiety.
Nonlinear: Ever heard of the butterfly effect? This is a similar concept. Tiny changes can cause huge (and unpredictable) outcomes. For example, a person’s influential action, such as a social media post, can impact seemingly unrelated aspects of society or industries. Something as innocuous as a tweet can send a share price tumbling which, of course, defies traditional linear models.
Incomprehensible: Understandably, this kind of world can be hard to navigate. Many find it hard to understand unfolding events. For example, understanding how AI makes its decisions is becoming increasingly difficult.
According to Professor Barbara Stöttinger, “the leadership behaviours that are most likely to lead to successful organisational change” in post-BANI world, “are those that promote exploration and learning, encourage risk-taking, and foster a climate of trust and openness to identify their weaknesses and create structures to address them.”
In the rest of this newsletter, we will explore how to equip leaders to lead with courage and care, building a climate of trust, ownership and accountability, promoting the behaviours that enable organisations the thrive in an unstable world.
